Category: Newspaper/Blog Articles/Hansard

The irony of the push to unseat Kelly O’Dwyer

The Age

Judith Ireland

27 April 2017

Kelly O’Dwyer’s son Edward was barely a week old when she briefly emerged from maternity leave last week.

The cabinet minister explained she was happy to speak to reporters and be photographed with her baby, because she wanted to send the message you can have a family and a high-powered political career, too.

From her Higgins electorate office in inner-suburban Melbourne, surrounded by old leatherbound law books and cradling her son, O’Dwyer said she was conscious of the lack of political role models for young people. It may be 2017, but she is still the first serving cabinet minister to give birth.

Since having her first child, Olivia, 23 months ago, O’Dwyer has gone from the junior frontbench to a cabinet gig. There was arguably a bit of a blip when she lost the small business portfolio in Malcolm Turnbull’s mid-2016 reshuffle, but the overall trajectory has been objectively groundbreaking.

While O’Dwyer notes there are inevitable compromises as she juggles work and family, she also spoke of how it had been possible to stay actively involved with budget preparations right up until Edward arrived. When she could no longer fly in the last month of her pregnancy, she phoned into cabinet’s expenditure review committee (razor gang) meetings. She was answering a colleague’s questions about superannuation as she went into hospital.

She praised Turnbull for being an “understanding, enlightened” boss, noted she was very lucky to have significant support from her husband Jon Mant and spoke about how technology means she can work anywhere and (importantly) with only one free hand. She also observed it was fortunate her children do not mind falling asleep to the sound of news on the radio.

“It is absolutely possible to serve at the highest levels and have a family,” she said emphatically. “It can be done.”

Oh the irony.

Hours after O’Dwyer’s upbeat comments, came reports she was facing a renewed push to unseat her in Higgins.

Outraged over the government’s new superannuation rules, a self-described “apolitical” group called Save Our Super has been trying to draft Tony Abbott’s former chief-of-staff Peta Credlin to run against O’Dwyer. While Save Our Super actually bobbed up before the 2016 election with no discernable impact on O’Dwyer’s 10 per cent margin and Credlin has likened a political career to “chewing glass”, the damage was done.

O’Dwyer’s message to young women that you can be a mum and a cabinet minister was drowned out by the news that some angry (old, rich) guys were gunning for her career while she was on maternity leave. The real message? Nothing is sacred.

Anyone with a passing interest in Australian politics will be aware that unexpected, unwanted job loss is an occupational hazard. And that parliament is not exactly a best practice employer of women. From Julia “ditch the witch” Gillard to Fiona “sex appeal” Scott there are many examples across the political spectrum that show it still has one foot in the Middle Ages.

But going after an MP – whether they are a cabinet minister or not – days after they have given birth is a new low.

Save Our Super founder Jack Hammond insists the most recent move against O’Dwyer has nothing to do with her maternity leave, even though it’s no secret she just had a baby. And on the ABC’s 7.30 on Monday, the barrister and former Malcolm Fraser adviser seemed comically unaware he was doing himself no PR favours as he criticised the super changes from the confines of his plush dining room.

“They [the Coalition] gave birth to an appalling policy,” he insisted with a straight face.

There are also other murky, narky forces swirling around. As Save Our Super makes unfortunate baby puns, O’Dwyer is caught up in intra-party feuding. A recent failed coup against Victorian Liberal Party President Michael Kroger has not engendered peace and goodwill in the state. Nor has the fact O’Dwyer is among those who backed Kroger challenger, Peter Reith. Note Kroger’s damningly neutral remarks when asked about O’Dwyer’s preselection: “That is a matter for branch members.”

Realistically, O’Dwyer is not under any immediate preselection threat in Higgins. For one thing, the Greens polled 42 per cent in 2016 (more than Labor), so the party would be crazy to replace the sitting MP, who is known for her moderate views on issues such as same-sex marriage. And there is some etiquette against getting rid of sitting cabinet ministers.

But the whole episode is at odds with where the Liberal Party says it wants to – and needs – to go on gender equality. Last year, the Liberal Party signed up to a 10-year plan to boost its female representation in parliament to 50 per cent, which at the moment sits at a woeful 21 per cent (the Nationals are at 14 per cent). This is the lowest level it has been in Canberra for more than two decades.

At the time, there was talk of “organisational reform at the grassroots level”. There was specific mention of the need to bring generation Y and X (of which O’Dwyer is a member) into the party fold. And it was hailed as a big breakthrough for conservative women.

But reforms such as this will go nowhere if women like O’Dwyer continue to succeed despite the political culture around them.

And you shudder to think what young women contemplating a career in politics make of her treatment over the past week.

Anger over super changes spills into the political arena

The Australian

26 April 2017

Glenda Korporaal – Associate Editor (Business)

The political impact of the Turnbull government’s proposed superannuation changes announced in last year’s budget is being felt.

It actually came home to roost in last year’s election with Liberal voters affected by the changes becoming disengaged and unhappy with the government, opting for minority parties in the Senate and cutting back on donations and electioneering support.

So much so that Turnbull himself had to put his hand in his pocket to help fund the campaign.

But anger at the changes among those most affected has continued to simmer and is now increasing as they work out how to rearrange their affairs — what they need to do under the old rules before June 30 and how things will change from July 1.

The issue is now erupting in the upmarket federal seat of Higgins in Victoria, held by Revenue Minister Kelly O’Dwyer, who was one of the people who spearheaded the changes as the Minister for Superannuation and Assistant Treasurer.

The issues have been simmering since the May 2016 budget and have nothing to do with the fact that she is on maternity leave.

They have to do with the fact that she — and many other Liberals — were apparently unconcerned that some people in her own electorate would be hit by the super changes.

Higgins takes in some of the country’s most affluent suburbs including Kooyong, Toorak and South Yarra.

While people can argue they are better off than many other people around the country, one would expect their local member to have some sympathy with their concerns.

While the Nationals ferociously defend the interests of their rural constituency, the Turnbull government introduced radical changes to super which hit middle and upper middle income aspirational Liberal voters, believing that those hit by the changes had nowhere else to go.

Well, they do.

As Jack Hammond QC told The Australian yesterday, he is being deluged by emails from Liberal voters who are “white hot with anger” at the changes.

He is the founder of Save our Super, which he set up after the May budget — not to stop the changes but to allow people who have arranged their affairs under the existing rules to grandfather them in some way.

The changes did not hit the seriously rich like Turnbull himself (“Mr Harbourside Mansion”), as putting a few more dollars into super is not something that worries people with his level of assets.

The main people clapping from the May announcements were the unions, industry super funds and Labor voters. The attitude from Turnbull, Treasurer Scott Morrison and O’Dwyer was that the changes didn’t affect that many people anyway.

The changes were sold with the very distinct tone that anyone who had been putting serious money into super — under the laws as laid down by a conservative government — was some sort of evil tax dodger or one of a few rich old men whose views didn’t deserve listening to.

For many who had been steadily putting extra money into super as they approached retirement, it seemed that the government was suddenly pulling the rug from under them, and snidely criticising them for planning their retirement and somehow rorting the system.

There was particular anger that the changes were retrospective.

No one is arguing that the existing generous superannuation system — particularly as it was boosted by the Howard-Costello government — did not need to be trimmed back.

But the May budget changes were far more radical than anyone expected and far more radical than anything proposed by Labor.

The system allowed people with super to pull money out tax-free (once they reached retirement). Once funds were in “retirement phase” their earnings were also tax-free.

It sounds generous, but — like a bank account — contributions to super are taxed on the way in at 15 per cent (up to a maximum of $35,000 a year) and the earnings on the account are being taxed at 15 per cent as they accumulate.

Extra contributions can be made to super but these have to be out of post-tax dollars. No one would argue that people should be taxed on the amount of money they take out of their own bank accounts, given they have paid tax on the money going into the account and on the earnings along the way.

And some tax concessions do have to be given to people in exchange for locking their money up until retirement, instead of spending it.

There was also anger about people with large superannuation balances being able to live tax-free in retirement — and this is a fair point.

But the limits on how much could be placed into super on a concessional basis have been steadily cut back from $100,000 a year to $30,000 a year for people under 50 and $35,000 a year for people over 50. And for people earning more than $300,000, super contributions were taxed at 30 per cent.

Before the budget, the Association of Super Funds of Australia had suggested at maximum of $2.5 million in tax-free super but the government went much further than expected with its $1.6m cap and a host of other changes.

The government is particularly vulnerable in Victoria, which has pockets of people with the highest average super balances.

As Hammond pointed out ­yesterday, purses and wallets are being shut in a way that is al­ready affecting Liberal Party funding.

It might sound amusing, but after the Turnbull government has dumped on its own supporters in such an arrogant way it is not ­surprising that super is re-­emerging as political tinder for tensions within an already divided party.

Vexed Liberals move to dump Kelly O’Dwyer while on maternity leave

The Age

23 April 2017

Amy Remeikis and Judith Ireland

Eight days into Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer’s maternity leave, vexed Victorian Liberals have moved to replace her.

Fairfax Media has confirmed Tony Abbott’s former chief-of-staff turned political commentator Peta Credlin has been encouraged to run against Ms O’Dwyer in the blue ribbon seat of Higgins, as a rebuke to the minister for the government’s soon-to-be enacted changes to superannuation.

It is understood that a number of branches within Ms O’Dwyer’s electorate, which takes in Toorak, one of Australia’s wealthiest suburbs, have chosen to meet when federal parliament is sitting, ensuring Ms O’Dwyer cannot attend.

“It’s not factional at all,” said one senior Victorian Liberal.

“I don’t think anyone thinks it’s fair that this report [on the challenge] has come just eight days after Kelly went on maternity leave. That’s not a good look at all. The fact is there are some internal issues in Higgins that need addressing.”

Those issues, Fairfax Media has been told, include anger within some branches over the superannuation issue, and some unhappy long-time supporters of Peter Costello, the former member for Higgins, who feel they have been sidelined as Ms O’Dwyer looks to promote younger members of the party.

In the midst of the 2016 federal election campaign a group, called called Save Our Super, established by Melbourne QC Jack Hammond, held a rally at the Malvern Town Hall, in the midst of Ms O’Dwyer’s seat.

That meeting attracted 200 people, mostly traditional Liberal voters. Institute of Public Affairs CEO John Roskam was among the notable attendees. A seat was, symbolically, left vacant at the meeting for Ms O’Dwyer, who did not attend.

That meeting called on the government to “grandfather” the impact of proposed changes on existing superannuation accounts.

According to reports at the time, the mood among attendees at that meeting was “white-hot rage”. That rage among a wealthy and influential group of Higgins Liberal party members has not subsided.

The approach to Ms Credlin was seen as a shot across the bow to Ms O’Dwyer, amid reports the pair did not get along during Ms Credlin’s tenure in Mr Abbott’s office.

News Ltd, which first reported the story, quoted Ms Credlin as saying she had not been “formally approached” to run for Higgins.

A spokesman for Ms O’Dwyer said the minister was “on maternity leave with an eight-day-old son and is not commenting on this story”.

The government has faced fierce opposition for its changes to superannuation, which include increased taxes on contributions for those earning over $250,000 and an annual $100,000 non-concessional cap on contributions.

The changes come into effect on July 1.

Speaking from her office on Friday ahead of the reported challenge Ms O’Dwyer wanted to send a message that it was possible to balance having a family with a career in politics.

“You can have a family and you can pursue a life of public service and you can do so at the highest levels,” she told Fairfax Media.

“It is absolutely possible.”

She also praised the support Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had given her, as she became the first woman to give birth while in Cabinet, describing him as “incredibly enlightened and understanding” when it came to working parents.

“I couldn’t ask for a better boss,” she said.

Ms O’Dwyer worked right up until the birth of her second child, Edward, on April 13, phoning in to Expenditure Review Committee meetings when she could no longer fly.

She is officially planning six weeks of leave with Finance Minister Mathias Cormann acting in her portfolio.

Ms O’Dwyer faced a strong challenge to hold her seat during the 2016 election, particularly from Greens candidate Jason Ball, but held on to win with a 9.9 per cent margin.

Millionaires trying to draft Peta Credlin to unseat Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer

Herald Sun

21 April 2017

James Campbell and Rob Harris

DISGRUNTLED millionaires are attempting to draft Peta Credlin to unseat federal Cabinet minister Kelly O’Dwyer in the blue-ribbon seat of Higgins.

A powerful group of local Liberals want Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff to challenge Ms O’Dwyer in retribution for her role in an unpopular tax on their superannuation savings. When asked by the Herald Sun about the plan on Friday, Ms Credlin would only say: “I have not been formally approached to run for Higgins”.

It’s understood the group of ­current and former Liberal branch members have made an unofficial approach and are willing to bankroll a challenge to the Revenue and ­Financial Services Minister because of their fury over the Turnbull Government’s changes to super.

HOW SUPER CHANGES MAY AFFECT YOU 

Higgins federal Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer. Picture: AAP/Lukas Coch
Peta Credlin says she has “not been formally approached to run for Higgins”. Picture: Aaron Francis

Victorian-born Ms Credlin has long been touted as a political candidate.

While she ran the former prime minister’s office, Ms Credlin was accused of ­deliberately holding back Ms O’Dwyer’s political career.

As Mr Abbott’s closest ­political adviser, Ms Credlin played a pivotal role in the former Liberal leader’s rise and fall and was accused of being a “control freak” and “micromanager” by Cabinet ministers and Mr Abbott’s political ­rivals.

Since the pair were ousted by the Turnbull regime, she’s been a continued critic of the current government — despite having once worked for Malcolm Turnbull — through her roles as a TV commentator and newspaper columnist.

Peta Credin: Mainstream politicians must ‘honestly’ talk about radical Islam

She has previously been linked to a Victorian senate bid as well as the safe northeastern suburbs seat of Menzies should Abbott ally Kevin ­Andrews ­retire.

The Herald Sun has been told Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger — part of a rival faction to Ms O’Dwyer’s — is aware of the plan from Higgins branch members to challenge. Mr Kroger did not return calls on Friday.

Ms O’Dwyer, who supported Mr Turnbull in the leadership ballot over Mr Abbott, was vocal in her support for Peter Reith’s challenge on Mr Kroger for the party’s top Victorian role last month before he withdrew his nomination following a health scare.

Ms O’Dwyer is currently on maternity leave.

Any challenge would be a warning shot against warring NSW Liberals faction who are understood to be considering a challenge for Mr Abbott’s ­federal seat of Warringah.

The Save Our Super group emerged in Melbourne during last year’s election campaign after contentious Budget moves, including a $500,000 “lifetime cap” on after-tax super contribution.

Peta Credlin on set at Sky News in Sydney. Picture: John Feder/The Australian

SUPERANNUATION CHANGES: GOVERNMENT’S $500K CAP AND OTHER POLICIES FACES COALITION BACKLASH

Many of the group were members of the Higgins branch and complained that they were not given a fair ­hearing by their local MP. A series of leaked emails last year revealed a number of members had quit the party or were ­refusing to raise funds for Mr Turnbull because of the policy.

Mr Turnbull and Ms O’Dwyer declined invites to address a Save Our Super rally at Malvern Town Hall two weeks out from last year’s ­election day.

The changes, which come in to effect on July 1, include a tax increase from 15 per cent to 30 per cent on contributions for workers earning more than $250,000. The seat of Higgins takes in Melbourne’s wealthiest postcode, Toorak.

Industry super funds pay unions more than $50m over 10 years

The Daily Telegraph

23 April 2017

ANNIKA SMETHURST, National political editor, News Corp Australia Network

AUSTRALIA’S biggest industry super funds have handed more than $50 million to Labor-aligned unions in the past decade, new figures reveal.

A long-term analysis of election funding data obtained by The Sunday Telegraph ­reveals six industry super funds — First Super, TWU Super, HOSTplus, Cbus, LUCRF and Australian Super — have all paid more than $5 million each to unions since 2006.

The payments have angered the Turnbull government, which argues that people ­deserve to know “where their nest egg is being spent”.

There are roughly five million Australians with industry super funds, but only 15 per cent of workers belong to a union.

Last year Cbus, the Construction and Building Unions Superannuation fund, made the largest contribution with more than $1 million in payments to ALP entities.

HOSTplus, the industry superannuation fund representing hospitality workers, has handed over more than $6 million to unions in the past decade, including more than $900,000 in 2015-16.

The nation’s biggest industry super fund, Australian Super, paid more than $600,000 to unions last year.

But Industry Super Australia (ISA) said the transactions were all commercial payments which can include advertising costs, interest on investments, dividends and director fees.

ISA chief David Whiteley said funds complied with disclosure laws and outperformed bank-owned funds.

Superannuation changes fuelling housing boom

The Australian Business Review

4 April 2017

Robert Gottliebsen

Over the Christmas break two groups of people made the same decision—-that Australian housing was one of the best places in the world to invest.

And the rest is history.

Housing prices are exploding once again, including a five per cent rise in Sydney in the last three months.

The regulators, including APRA, ASIC and the Reserve Bank, are trying to curb the boom via the banking system but are using clumsy and dangerous mechanisms. More of that later.

The two groups that made the same decision are Australians wanting to save for retirement and overseas/local Chinese.

It’s worth recalling that back in October 2016 Treasurer Scott Morrison boldly declared:

“While the majority of Australians live in a home that is either owned or being purchased by their household, for each new generation this aspiration is proving more and more difficult to realise.

“That is why housing affordability will be an important policy focus of the Turnbull government in this parliamentary term. And it is important we get it right.”

Oh, Scott, those words will come back to bite. As we now realise, a month later in November 2016 Morrison poured kerosene all over the housing market. All that was required was a match to reignite the boom.

Traditionally Australians have chosen between two ways of saving for retirement in a tax effective way — superannuation contributions or borrowing to buy dwellings and deducting the interest against salary or other income — so called “negative gearing”.

The government changed the superannuation rules in November to limit contributions and increase superannuation uncertainty. In the lead-up to the superannuation changes Australians had already begun switching to the other traditional retirement option — negative gearing.

By November it was all systems go and the market was given an extra nudge by foolish asset test pension changes that made it crazy for those in certain asset brackets to downsize their house and encouraged them to spend their money on cruises.

Both the superannuation and asset test measures will help the bottom line in the next couple of budgets but will boost the deficit in later years. Simply bad government.

Igniting the Morrison negative gearing kerosene just required a few good weeks of house price rises.

And so in February I revealed just how powerful the negative gearers had become in the apartment market.

At that stage the Chinese seemed still dormant, having reduced buying in 2016. But later in February it became clear that the game dramatically changed and the Chinese came rushing back, partly sparked by the fact that Australia had become the number one education market for Chinese thanks to Donald Trump’s election and British visa restrictions.

In addition, the Chinese believe their currency restrictions will be lifted in the next two years so again began buying apartments off the plan. I revealed the education and Chinese property reversal developments in early March.

These two developments do not change the fundamental forces that are underpinning the boom—the combination of low interest rates and close to unlimited credit from banks; high population growth in Sydney and Melbourne and a shortage of supply mainly created by state and local governments.

The regulators are taking unprecedented steps to curb the bank contribution to the boom via restrictions on investor loan growth, higher interest rates and curbs on interest-only loans.

But the Morrison superannuation kerosene is still fuelling the boom. And it’s made worse by the fact that the opinion polls say that the current government will not be re-elected. The ALP will change the negative gearing rules so those saving for retirement are “getting set” before it’s too late.

There is grave risk that the lending restrictions being imposed by the regulators will backfire because they are also affecting developers and so reducing supply.

But the biggest supply constraint remains state and local governments, who seem to have a vested interested in keeping prices rising because it helps revenue.

But history tells us that when levels of debt get very high and prices become uneconomic when related to income levels that in time there will be a trigger that busts the market.

That could come at any time, but the most likely predictable time is when the negative gearing rules are changed.

And of course the Coalition sees the fear of a big fall in house prices as their chance to win the election despite the current opinion polls.

That raises all sorts of questions I will leave for another day.

Scott Morrison softens stance on $14bn company tax cuts

The Australian

22 March 2017

David Crowe

Scott Morrison has softened his defence of the government’s $47.8 billion company tax cut after receiving a backbench warning that the policy is dragging the Coalition down in its fight with Labor.

Following a report in The Australian yesterday about the doubts over the enterprise tax plan, Malcolm Turnbull and the Treasurer avoided any commitment to the policy when Labor challenged them on the issue in parliament.

Their lukewarm remarks came after Victorian Liberal MP Russell Broadbent yesterday warned the Coalition partyroom that voters saw the tax cut as unfair when it came at the same time as cuts to pensions, superannuation and penalty rates.

Mr Broadbent told the meeting that the principle of fairness was “woven through the tapestry” of the entire country, making it difficult to persuade voters to accept the company tax cut.

This moment in the partyroom represents the first significant questioning of the tax plan at a time when the government appears to be backing away from the policy.

Labor Treasury spokesman Chris Bowen asked Mr Morrison yesterday if his tax policy was “in tatters” but received no assurance the company tax cut would be kept as policy in the budget.

“The government is absolutely committed to our comprehensive economic plan to support jobs in this country,” Mr Morrison said.

When Bill Shorten challenged Mr Turnbull, the Prime Minister rejected the Opposition Leader’s claim that he had called it his “greatest achievement” but avoided any pledge to proceed with the policy.

The budget measure costs $47.8bn over a decade by cutting the company tax rate from 30c to 27.5c in the dollar for small companies over the next few years before gradually lowering the rate to 25c for all companies by 2026.

Labor ran rings around the Libs in 2016 election, and it showed

The Daily Telegraph

9 April 2017

Peta Credlin

With the polls still breaking bad for the government, the last thing the PM would’ve wanted is the public release of Andrew Robb’s
report into the Coalition’s 14-seat drubbing in last year’s election.

It should be released but enough leaks show the secret report pulls no punches. Unless something changes fast, Bill Shorten will win the next election and that means higher taxes, more debt, open borders, higher power prices and political correctness gone mad.

On two separate occasions over the past 10 years, Malcolm Turnbull has plotted to seize the Liberal Party leadership from the incumbent. On both occasions, the polls hit high highs, and then low lows. On both occasions, the base deserted Turnbull and on both occasions, the considered judgment was he had a plan to take the leadership but he had no plan to run the party, or the country.

So how did ii go so wrong? Like Julia Gillard, the method of Turnbull’s ascension dogs his prime ministership. Commentators note Tony Abbott’s unpopularity and it’s true, he was never popular but most underestimate the disdain of Coalition supporters for Laborlike bloodletting.

But let’s look at the campaign.

First, the newly installed prime minister and his supporters wasted precious months qevelling in the coup’s success rather than preparing for an early election. Effort should have been split hro ways: one to establish his government and nanative, and the other to prepare the campaign. VUhen Turnbull’s support for an ETS handed the leadership to Abbott late in 2009, there was a good chance, if smart, that Kevin Rudd would head to the polls in February.

That meant summer was spent in mad preparation and by Australia Day, there was a campaign strategy, marginal seat materials, draft policies, a first cut of costings and a skeleton CHQ ready to go. Every week he didn’t dissolve the parliament helped to refine the battle plan.

For the Turnbull camp, capitalising on inevitable ‘honeymoon’ polls should’ve been the driving force. Shunting experienced ministers to the backbench and over-promoting plotters made campaign preparations harder (as well as resulting in a high reshuffle rate).

There was sufficient draft policy work and marginal seat plans ready to go. Why they junked the tested apparatus put in place in 2010 and 2013 to run the leader’s campaign is beyond me; after all, it helped us take 25 seats off Labor.

This week, campaign chief Tony Nutt has copped the lion’s share of blame but others deserve as much, if not more. As his former boss John Howard often said, campaign directors can’t be expected to fatten the pig on market day.

Revisionists should take a look at Newspoll: despite a 2PP result of 53/47 in December 2015, the government’s first poll in February 2016 had a much tighter result of 50/50. The tightening continued in the lead-up to the May, made worse by a lack of consistency between the PM and Treasurer; the kite-flying on policy, only to rule it out a couple of days later, showed a lack of strategic focus, not to mention discipline.

What’s more, the policy backflip on superannuation killed the budget stone dead when it was crucial for a strong campaign start. But the gaffes and about-turns were nothing compared with the absence of a negative campaign. The brutal reality is that negative works and Turnbull’s reluctance to go negative always struck me as contradictory; after all, he had no compunction going negative to get the job in the first place. By going down Labor’s path, the Coalition lost moral authority, making it hard to use Bill Shorten’s role in knifing two PMs.

The Coalition still could have used his trade union history. Failing to use Shorten’s own Royal Commission evidence was a significant campaign error. I couldn’t believe there weren’t Cleanevent workers, ripped off by Bill, shadowing him on the campaign trail.

Despite his own baggage, Shorten was able to quickly frame Turnbull as out of touch (rankling still). Hard-hitting ministers like Peter Dutton were shut down even though a large number of Labor candidates were soft on border protection and polling showed vulnerability. The obsession with Jobs and growth’crowded out other opportunities too.

Good retail campaigners like Greg Hunt were kept away from issues such as rising power prices and Labor’s plan for a new carbon tax. Campaign workers told head office that’Mediscare’was biting but inside the CHQ bubble, and on the PM’s plane, it fell on deaf ears.

Copying the Rudd-Gillard playbook caused widespread Liberal fury and once superannuation was added in, it was madness to think members would fundraise, volunteer and indeed vote as before. Declaring that ‘the base has nowhere else to go’ was a fatal mistake.

The Liberal campaign ground-game was shambolic. Marginal seats suffered from a lack of experience and resources. Almost all the state directors had never run a federal campaign before. iraining, a key part of the Coalition’s success in opposition, ground to a halt after September 2015. Feedback from local campaigners was they were treated with contempt by twenty-somethings in head office who had only ever seen a marginal seat on a map. Local messages were dumped in favour of innovation and agility’.

I could see Turnbull’s office was struggling when, day after day, their opponents got their announcements briefed into local papers the night before and his staff struggled to get their press release out after the event.

Labor was up and into the news cycle early each day, they were faster online and slicker when it came to visits. Labor had a slick telephone canvassing operation but Coalition phones sat idle because volunteers were on strike. The macro campaign slogan, lobs and growth’, was empty and quickly lampooned. By replacing the Liberal logo with a Turnbull Government ‘seal’, the campaign gurus angered members for what looked like a vanity project.

As they say in politics, the fish rots from the head. Leaders are supposed to campaign like their life depends on it. ln political terms, it usually does.

Most days Turnbull looked like he wanted to be somewhere else. His first error was to call an eight week double dissolution. The campaign itself lacked energy: cancelled street walks, not enough radio, knocking off at lunchtime and relying on a single doorstop most days.

Reports like this are rarely brave enough to finger a sitting leader even if warranted. lf Turnbull was smart, he would take the criticism on board before it is too late. He needs better political advice, he needs a strategy and while he’s had some well-deserved wins, the polls suggest people have stopped listening. The Budget is the final chance for his treasurer, and his govemment.

lf it fails, it only further cements Bill Shorten’s grip on The Lodge.

Newspoll: Oldies deserting Malcolm Turnbull

The Australian

10 April 2017

David Crowe

 

Older Australians are deserting Malcolm Turnbull’s government in a powerful swing that is fuelling the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, with the federal Coalition suffering a 10 per cent fall in support among voters older than 50 since the last election.

The government is also under threat from a backlash in Queensland and Western Australia, where voters are recording the strongest shifts in a nationwide trend that has the Coalition trailing Labor by 47 per cent to 53 per cent in two-party terms.

Bill Shorten is failing to capitalise on all of the Prime Minister’s woes, with Labor gaining just a fraction of the national swing against the Coalition in first-preference votes and making no headway in NSW and South Australia.

An analysis of 6943 voters in Newspoll surveys taken between February and April reveals a deepening frustration with both major party leaders, with Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating declining by five percentage points since August while the Opposition Leader’s fell by nine.

The discontent has helped lift Senator Hanson’s party to 10 per cent support in primary vote terms as a result of increases across every age group, although its strongest gains were among voters older than 50.

The quarterly analysis, conducted exclusively for The Australian, highlights the shift in the electorate since the July 2 election and the crucial role One Nation prefer­ences could play when Australians next go to the polls.

One Nation support has surged in Queensland from 5.5 per cent at the last election to 16 per cent this year, despite a furore over Senator Hanson’s factual errors on vaccination, calls for an investigation into the party’s finances and complaints from a former candidate that the party was “just another grubby, dirty, bloody political party” out to serve its own ends.

Mr Turnbull has vowed to focus on the “sensible centre” of Australian politics in a warning to colleagues against a “reactionary” message to voters, telling a Liberal Party conference last weekend that the future lay in bringing ­people together.

With Mr Shorten appealing to “working and middle-class families” by pledging to defend penalty rates and attacking the Coalition’s business tax cuts, the quarterly Newspoll analysis shows voters in WA have shifted strongly to Labor but the gains have been more modest in other states.

Australians older than 50 make up the single largest voting demographic and have emerged as a big problem for the Coalition over the past two years, given they have been hit by increases in super­annuation taxes, cuts to pension supplements and tighter rules on the Age Pension assets test.

The Coalition enjoyed almost 50 per cent primary vote support among the 50-plus age group last July but this is now 40 per cent, deepening a trend revealed in The Weekend Australian in December.

While the Coalition’s support among older voters has slipped in the past — including a fall from 51.8 per cent at the 2013 election to 45 per cent in the months before Tony Abbott was replaced as prime minister — the slump in recent months is an alarming low for Mr Turnbull.

Voters aged from 35 to 49 have also turned against the Coalition but the decline is smaller — from 38.5 to 34 per cent — while younger voters aged from 18 to 34 have recorded a fall in support from 32.4 per cent to 30 per cent.

In a sign Mr Shorten has struggled to capitalise on all of this shift, Labor’s primary support among voters in the 50-plus group has climbed from 30.6 to 34 per cent since the election and not changed among the other age groups.

The Newspoll analysis, which has a margin of error of only 1.2 per cent on national figures, confirms that 29 per cent of voters are not giving their primary votes to either of the major parties — up from 23 per cent at the election.

Immigration Minister Peter Dutton yesterday said the government could win the next election and “win it well”, despite making comments last week linking Mr Turnbull’s hold on the prime ministership with the Coalition’s poor Newspoll results.

Mr Turnbull cited the ­Coalition’s loss in 30 consecutive Newspolls when he rolled Tony Abbott for the leadership in 2015.

“I think Bill Shorten, as each day goes by, people’s doubts about him grow,” Mr Dutton said.

He said that when he was preselected in January 2001, John Howard was “gone for all money”.

“With two years to go, we have the ability to turn the polls around, to win the election well under Malcolm Turnbull,” he said.

“On policy fronts including nat­ional security and border sec­urity, as well as economic security and energy security, this government can win the next election, and win it well.”

The Greens have held their primary vote at 10 per cent while One Nation has more than doubled its support to 10 per cent since late last year, with another 9 per cent of voters backing others.

With voters marking down the government after its narrow victory at the election, the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen from 41 per cent to 35 per cent since a similar Newspoll analysis from August to September last year. While One Nation’s support has climbed sharply, Labor’s primary vote has not changed.

As a potent force in Australian politics with four senators, One Nation has broken out in Newspoll results since November. Its support has climbed to 7 per cent in Western Australia and South Australia, 8 per cent in Victoria, 10 per cent in NSW and 16 per cent in Queensland.

Support for the Greens ranges from 12 per cent in Victoria to 6 per cent in South Australia, where the party struggles to match the ­appeal of the Nick Xenophon Team. Senator Xenophon’s party has maintained its strong support in the state, despite his ongoing role as a key powerbroker in the Senate.

Men have turned against the Coalition slightly more strongly than women, but today’s analysis highlights challenges to both leaders and their parties.

The Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — has weakened slightly from -21 points to -26 points over the period from August to April.

Mr Shorten’s net satisfaction rating has weakened from -15 points to -24, with a strong trend emerging from male voters. Among men, Mr Shorten’s net ­satisfaction has slipped from -12 to -27 points.

Turnbull Flounders, Morrison Dumped By Hadley, Abbott Urges More Fight

Herald Sun

10 April 2017

Andrew Bolt

 

Plenty of trouble for Malcolm Turnbull today, who seems in a death spiral.

Ray Hadley dumps Treasurer Scott Morrison after four years:

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison has been dumped as a weekly guest by Sydney-based radio presenter Ray Hadley…

Hadley, based in 2GB in Sydney but who broadcasts nationally through the Macquarie Radio network, … made the announcement to his listeners this morning after he found out that Mr Morrison was about to appear on ABC radio in Melbourne with presenter Jon Faine.

Clearly angry, Hadley said Mr Morrison’s office had told him he was not available to do his regular spot with him this morning because he was “travelling.”

Hadley was about to tell his listeners that they would not be hearing the Treasurer today because he was in transit when he was notified that at the same time Mr Morrison was appearing — in the studio — in Melbourne.

“He’s lied to me, or his staff have lied,” Hadley said.

“If he wants to dud me then he’ll get dudded every chance he gets.”

Hadley said the reason Mr Morrison may have wanted to avoid the appearance may have been because the Coalition had just lost 11 Newspolls in a row under Malcolm Turnbull.

Newspoll confirms a landslide is on:

Older Australians are deserting Malcolm Turnbull’s government in a powerful swing that is fuelling the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, with the federal Coalition suffering a 10 per cent fall in support among voters older than 50 since the last election.

The government is also under threat from a backlash in Queensland and Western Australia, where voters are recording the strongest shifts in a nationwide trend that has the Coalition trailing Labor by 47 per cent to 53 per cent in two-party terms.

Big swings against Liberals in NSW by-elections on Saturday:

The Berejiklian government recorded a swing against it of 24 per cent in the Sydney seat of Manly which has been vacated by former premier Mike Baird… In the nearby seat of North Shore and the Central Coast seat of Gosford, there were swings to Labor of 15.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.

An internal review warns Turnbull not to offend his base and to get a plan:

Former Liberal federal director Andrew Robb’s Review of the 2016 Federal Election, obtained exclusively by The Daily Telegraph, has recommended the Prime Minister, his senior leadership team, the federal executive and senior party figures change their campaign techniques, step up research, focus on ethnic voters and call out Labor’s lies, to lift their performance at the next federal election in two years’ time.

It also urges the Turnbull Government to respect the Liberal Party’s core supporters, amid concerns they deserted the Party in droves, refusing to man polling booths or donate to the party, furious with the Government’s proposed superannuation changes.

“While governing for all, at all times respect, and be seen to be respecting our base,” the review states…

Addressing criticisms the Government has no narrative, the Review recommends the Liberals “formulate a clear plan, priorities and build a supporting narrative of where a Coalition is taking Australia.”

And Tony Abbott says the Turnbull Government must give supporters something to fight for:

The former PM said the Liberal Party had to give the public something to hope for and give people in the Liberal heartland “something to fight for”.

He said the federal government should prioritise affordable power prices.

“The best thing we can do there is stop subsidising these windmills because they’re making power less reliable and less affordable,” Mr Abbott told 2GB’s Alan Jones.

“The other thing we can do is fight for senate reform because good government is becoming almost impossible in this country, Alan.

“You can never get a populist crossbench to vote for less spending, less regulation and less tax on the most productive people in our society.”

Mr Abbott reiterated his support for a proposal first put forward by John Howard in 2003, which would amend Section 57 of the Constitution so that if the Senate rejected legislation twice three months apart, a joint sitting of both houses could be held without need for a double dissolution election.

(Thanks to readers Peter of Bellevue Hill, PSFR and others.)

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